Wild American Gooner

July 13, 2014
by etfaust 4 Comments

Wird Die Mannschaft Gewinnen? Ja, voll! – My World Cup Final Preview and Prediction

The day has finally come. It’s the World Cup Final. Everything has led up to this – all of the story lines, all of the struggles, all of the success. But in a few hours, none of that will matter. It will all be about the 90 (or 120) minutes played in the Maracana. The world will be stopped in admiration of the beautiful game’s finest hour. It’s Messi and the Argentines against the Germans. And we’re in for a treat.

The final has the makings of a fascinating encounter. All the Argentine story lines revolve around Lionel Messi in the lead up to the match, but the rest of his teammates bear the bulk of the task. Shutting down Germany’s rampant attack will be a challenge for an Argentine defense seen as the weak link coming into the tournament. Four years ago, in a World Cup quarterfinal, Germany beat Argentina 4-0 in a very one-sided encounter. Germany scored an early goal from a set piece, and then struck three more times in the second half. They picked Argentina’s defense apart, and were particularly dangerous on the counter. Today’s German team isn’t drastically different from the one they fielded four years ago, so it will be up to Argentina’s defense to make sure things are different today.

For Argentina, the best way to go about this game might be to sit back like they did against the Dutch, hoping that Lionel Messi will create one instance of magic at some point on the counter. Alejandro Sabella should be worried about his midfield getting outnumbered, so he will likely have to counter that by making sure he always has men behind the ball. Lucas Biglia and Javier Mascherano will have a gargantuan task in stopping the German midfield, but given their recent performances defensively, those two might be up for the task. Marcos Rojo will need to be the disciplined left back he was against Netherlands rather than the marauding one he was earlier in the tournament to minimize Thomas Müller’s effect. Germany attacked mostly from the right against Brazil, so Rojo will have to at his best today.

While the game plan might revolve around stopping Germany from scoring, Argentina will likely have to score themselves if they hope to win. Another scoreless 90 or 120 minutes might be possible, but Sabella shouldn’t count on his team’s ability to keep another clean sheet. At some point, he’ll need the best player in the world to leave his mark on the match. While there aren’t many obvious holes in Germany’s lineup, one is at left back. Should Messi be allowed one-on-one situations with Benedikt Höwedes, he should be able to blow by him. Creating as many of those opportunities for Messi as possible should be Argentina’s strategy going forward, especially with Angel di Maria looking unlikely to play. Gonzalo Higuain might be called upon to convert a half-chance or two, but his main work will likely come in the hold-up department, relieving some of the relentless German pressure. A late appearance from Sergio Agüero should provide a boost with a burst of pace up front, especially if Mats Hummels’s injury has slowed the German defender at all.

Germany’s tactics should be similar to those they used against Brazil. With a huge advantage in quality and numbers in the middle of the park, they should be looking to create little triangles to open up space in the final third. Biglia and Mascherano can only be in one place at a time, so lots of quick passing will leave Argentina vulnerable as they get spread out. Testing Sergio Romero early should be a priority, as the keeper is way out of his element in a World Cup Final. Sending in crosses might not be the ideal way to win, but the Germans should allow Romero to make a mistake. Every set piece they get will be dangerous, as the quality of Toni Kroos’s free kicks and the aerial prowess of the entire lineup will cause a lot of problems for Romero.

Defensively, Germany should be careful not to leave Höwedes isolated against Messi. If too many men are forward in attack, a single counter attack from the little man could prove fatal. Bastian Schweinsteiger was excellent against Brazil like many others were, but today his role should be a more defensive one. If he can keep an eye on Messi, Germany shouldn’t be too worried. Whether or not Hummels is able to play due to his injury is unknown, but regardless, the Germans should be alright in defense. With Philipp Lahm restored to the back line, they’ve looked much more solid. And last but not least, there is the safety net that is Manuel Neuer. It’s no small task to beat the big German keeper, and Argentina might need more than a few chances if one is to get by him.

I predict the match will start brightly for Germany, with Mesut Özil forcing an early save from Romero. While Argentina settles into the game, the German front line will be hard at work, creating a number of dangerous looking opportunities. Messi won’t see much of the ball in the early going, and Higuain will look rather isolated up top. The opening goal will come thirty minutes into the half, with Jerome Boateng nodding home a Kroos corner. It will be 1-0 Germany at half. Argentina will send on Agüero early on in the second half, knowing they need to be more offensive minded. And his impact will be felt quickly, with Argentina’s best chance falling to Higuain, who will hit his effort straight at Neuer. Once Argentina begin to look dangerous, Germany will settle quickly, with Schweinsteiger and Khedira moving deeper. With fifteen minutes to play, the Germans will all but seal the match with a brilliantly worked counter. Andre Schürrle will start the move, finding Özil on the left, played into the space behind Pablo Zabaleta. Özil will draw Romero out before squaring the ball for Müller, who will convert. The final minutes will tick off the clock without too much drama, und Deutschland wird gewinnen. Messi won’t get the chances he needs, and Philipp Lahm will lift the cup for Germany. The game will finish Germany 2 Argentina 0.

Today, I’ll celebrate my Faustian roots, my small amount of German heritage, and my German nickname, by rooting for Germany as hard as I can. Whoever wins though, I hope we’re in for an entertaining end to a wonderful World Cup. May the best team win.

Check back for post-match analysis later tonight, and I’ll have my post-World Cup thoughts spread among the next few days. Enjoy the final.

July 12, 2014
by etfaust 2 Comments

Ah, How I Love the Third Place Game

Good morning, everyone. I’d imagine I’m unique in this way, but today is one of my favorite random sporting events. It’s the third place game at the World Cup. And I can’t be more excited. I fear we may not get many more of these once FIFA begins to realize how much the players hate them, so make sure to tune in this afternoon for Brazil-Netherlands. It’s sure to be fascinating in a way only third place games can be.

This game doesn’t matter much, and I’ll be the first to admit that. With the club season coming up rapidly, I completely understand why players wouldn’t want to risk getting hurt in an extra game like this one. As Arjen Robben pointed out, the whole World Cup is played so that teams can win a trophy. So why should they care about the only game that doesn’t matter in that competition for the trophy? It makes sense to have a third place game in the Olympics with there being a bronze medal, but why have one when there’s no extra incentive? Entertainment, that’s why.

There are a few interesting subplots in today’s game and most of them revolve around Brazil. For starters, both coaches will likely be coaching their last games. While Louis van Gaal will obviously leave for Manchester United with a great deal of dignity, his Brazilian counterpart Luiz Felipe Scolari could be ridden out on a rail. Van Gaal might not care too much if he loses his final game in charge of the Dutch team, but Scolari will certainly be coaching for a semblance of pride. He should feel a huge amount of pressure to win this game, if only to avoid further embarrassment.

The team sheets won’t have many familiar names on them, but for vastly different reasons. Van Gaal’s stars won’t want to play, and why should they? We’ll likely see as many as 9 or 10 changes I’d imagine, with Klaas-Jan Huntelaar leading the line. For some, this may be their final chance to put on their country’s uniform, and players like Dirk Kuyt might relish their last opportunity to wear the Dutch shirt. Brazil’s players might also fear it could be their final opportunity, but because of Tuesday’s embarrassment rather than becaause of old age. Fred, Jo, Fernandinho and Dani Alves, to name a few, all could be playing their last game for Brazil. If they have any self-pride, you have to think they’d want to give their all.

On that note, this game should be interesting to watch to see how Brazilian players react to the 7-1 shellacking by Germany. Will they be out to redeem themselves, or will they try and hide after the humiliation? I’d imagine it will be some of both. If there are usual starters in the starting 11, it will likely be because they want to restore some pride and I expect those players in particular to be energized. Whether or not they channel that energy in a positive way rather remains to be seen, but their could be serious passion on the field. If Brazil don’t score quickly, play could get chippy, and we might see a straight red card.

Nearly everybody on this roster might never play for their country again, with a few obvious exceptions, if Brazil goes out looking disinterested. A two or three goal loss would be devastating in so many ways. However, should they come out fighting, showing more passion and commitment on the field than they did Tuesday, and should they win convincingly, the players might be able to reframe this narrative. A goal or two from Fred, a disciplined performance from Paulinho, or any such strong exhibitions and some of the pain might be lessened.

With the Netherlands likely starting a lot of inexperienced defenders, Brazil could find spaces in the attacking third. And with the Dutch probably not caring too much, the game could open up early due to a lack of defensive tactics. As such, there is certainly room for Brazil to begin their atonement for Tuesday. However, I’m not entirely convinced they will be up for the task. Any harsh treatment from fans in the early going could rattle the Brazilians, and they themselves might leak goals.

Predicting this game is nearly impossible given the uncertainty in team selection and the degree to which these players will actually try, but regardless, I expect this game to be full of goals like most third place games are. I expect Willian to be particularly active today for Brazil, and he will score the opener so early, that it will leave many wondering where the Dutch’s motivation lies. However, Klaas-Jan Huntelaar will score a first half brace on two poorly defended set pieces to give Netherlands the lead at halftime. When Brazil get booed off the field at half, Thiago Silva will give an impassioned speech to inspire his teammates. And Fred will score the equalizer near the 60th minute. However, against the run of play, Huntelaar will complete his hat trick late on and Brazil will leave losers, having been beaten by a side who don’t want to be there. It will end up Netherlands 3 Brazil 2.

But regardless of what Brazilian team shows up, this game should be fun for the neutral. If you like goals, this will be the match for you. Check back later for analysis, and enjoy watching the World Cup while you still can. Only two days left.

July 11, 2014
by etfaust 1 Comment

And Now We Can Go Back To Appreciating LeBron the Basketball Player

An otherwise dull sports day will now be remembered forever after the news that a superstar is coming home. No, I’m not talking about Luis Suarez’s transfer from Liverpool to Barcelona, the home of his wife’s family. Frankly, I can’t be bothered to care too much about the carnivorous forward during his four month suspension. I’m talking about LeBron James, the best basketball player on the face of the earth, and his decision to return to Cleveland.

In a nicely written article posted on Sports Illustrated earlier today, LeBron James announced that he was returning home to his roots, signing a max deal with the Cavaliers. In one instant, the outlook of an entire city changed completely. Cleveland suddenly forgot about their history of sporting letdowns, and were able to celebrate the homecoming of the century. If only ashes could be turned back into jerseys.

What made this day great was that LeBron did not have another “Decision.” He didn’t even title his article in Sports Illustrated “The Return.” He learned from his mistake this go around, and tried to make this news as much about the city of Cleveland as it was about himself. The tone of his article was also a lot less self-centered. Instead of talking about what was best for him, he talked about what was best for all the kids in Cleveland that would be growing up in the coming years. This was a much more mature way to announce the huge news, even if a big event to announce this would have made many Cavaliers fans happy in the end.

Basketball wise, LeBron has a lot of work to do to make the Cavaliers a contender again. Even if a trade is made for Kevin Love, there isn’t much in the way of depth on the team – they weren’t particularly close to the postseason last season, after all. They are hugely inexperienced in the playoffs, including their new coach David Blatt, and while Kyrie Irving may be a superstar in a year or two, he’s not quite there now. It isn’t like LeBron is joining another dream team. However, LeBron’s arrival does bring that championship or bust mentality to the team. The expectations will be huge, but if anyone is equipped to deal with that now, it’s Mr. James.

As a fan of basketball, this could not be better news. Having a star choose his small-market hometown team over the allure of Los Angeles and Miami will be good for the game, restoring parity to a league that was losing much of the equality it was establishing. It’ll also be much nice to see real sports fans get to appreciate LeBron rather than those in Miami. And won’t it be much more bearable to watch LeBron lead his Cavaliers to a title than it would have been had he won 4 or 5 with the Heat? In addition to Cleveland residents, all NBA fans are winners today.

I’m not ready to forgive LeBron entirely for “The Decision” as a basketball fan and human being. However, while I’ll never forget that hour of television, I can put those feelings aside now, focusing on the basketball player we are all so lucky to watch. He did everything right this time, and for that, he deserves our respect. LeBron’s decision to be the better man and accept whatever apology Dan Gilbert offered for his letter says a lot about his increased maturity level.

LeBron shouldn’t suddenly become revered for his character on account of today’s news, but hopefully the image of him as a villain will disappear. Being able to watch LeBron without vehemently rooting against him will be nice for a change. I applaud him for his decision today, and now we wait for all of the other NBA dominoes to fall. This should be an exciting year in the NBA.

July 11, 2014
by etfaust Leave a comment

The Calm Before the Storm

Good morning all. Today is the calm before the storm World Cup wise. We get the third place match tomorrow and the final Sunday, but today we have to wait. I don’t have much time today so that suits me just fine. But all day, I’ll be thinking about this weekend. It’s going to be fun.

Yesterday was quite a day for Arsenal supporters, and frankly I still can hardly believe that happened. We signed Alexis Sanchez… It’ll take a while for that to sink in. It seems strange that he took number 17, given that Nacho Monreal was currently wearing it. The options weren’t great for numbers, with 13 and 18 being the two best available, so you can see why Sanchez wanted something better. But what does it say to Monreal about his importance that his number was just given away? I guess there’s no way of knowing if he gave it up willingly, but it can’t be a good sign for the Spanish left back. Hopefully this doesn’t signal the end of Monreal’s time in an Arsenal shirt.

Hopefully there will be more good Arsenal transfer news to come in the immediate future, and now that Arsene Wenger has proved he can buy someone before the end of the window, everyone will be expecting big things. There is still a need at right back, center back, defensive midfield and goalkeeper, so this shouldn’t be the end of Arsenal’s spending. If Wenger plays his cards right, Arsenal could be a feared side come late August.

On a different front, the Red Sox won their second straight game in walkoff fashion yesterday, beating the White Sox in extra innings after Koji Uehara had blown a save. These last two games have been ones the Red Sox wouldn’t have won earlier in the season, but it would seem naive to consider everything fixed after two games. There are still lots of issues offensively – Jose Quintana had a perfect game into the sixth for the White Sox – and there’s a rapidly rising concern about the bullpen. Two walkoffs could help change the momentum and improve the vibe in the clubhouse, but in order to make a second half run, they’ll need to start hitting. Three hits in 10 innings won’t get you too many wins.

However, it is a good sign that the team hasn’t given up after the A.J. Pierzynski dismissal seemingly signaled that the front office was throwing in the towel on the season. That the players still have each others’ backs says a lot about the character of this team. We knew it was strong last year, but nobody seemed to be stepping up this year. It would be wise to try and ride this momentum out for as long as possible, but I don’t see it lasting much beyond the all-star break. However, if the Red Sox can make a legitimate push in the A.L. East in the next few weeks, maybe they can be buyers at the deadline after all. There’s no telling what will push the players’ buttons in times like these, but maybe the fear of getting traded or released could be the needed motivation.

It isn’t always pretty, but at least the Red Sox games have been more watchable in recent days. If there’s any more Arsenal news today, I’ll have some analysis, but otherwise, it’ll be a pretty quiet day. Thanks for reading.

July 10, 2014
by etfaust 9 Comments

Arsenal’s Puma Kit Trilogy Launch (What Does That Even Mean?)

The modern convention of making soccer kit launches big events makes very little sense in the Twitter age, as nearly every single kit has been leaked at some point. So there was very little suspense among Arsenal fans when it came to the first Puma design. But that didn’t stop the club from making the reveal of their first PUMA kits an insane spectacle. It was dubbed the “Arsenal/Puma Kit Trilogy.” If only the kits were as epic as the name.

With Puma taking over from Nike, the company was always going to make a big deal out of their first big club in England. And as Arsenal got a lot more money out of Puma than they did from Nike – Puma will be paying Arsenal £30 million annually, while Nike only payed £8 a year – it made sense that they would try and please the company from the start. Arsenal’s website has been a big advertisement for Puma lately, and the Alexis Sanchez transfer even got buried beneath Puma stuff. It’s all a bit ridiculous.

But their launch today was downright strange. For those around the world, there was a Live Launch Video on Youtube that consisted of a 30 minute countdown (one that didn’t even count down the entire time – see the 8 minute mark of the video for when it counts up) and less than three very strange minutes of vaguely discernible holographs projected onto water in front of the London Eye with Arsene Wenger doing his best Morgan Freeman impersonation. Watch the video for yourself, it’s extraordinarily strange. I can’t imagine what being there would have been like.

The kits themselves aren’t as bold as I would have expected from Puma. And while it’s refreshing to see new designs after watching so many generic Adidas and Nike looks dominate the EPL recently, I don’t particularly like this new Arsenal set.

Here are all three looks for the 2014/15 season

The Home Red

The kit that we will see the most of is not particularly aesthetic to the eye. The shoulder panels are awkward, unable to decide if they should be rounded or straight. Ever since this jersey leaked months ago in a photo with Thierry Henry wearing it, I have not been looking forward to seeing it on the field. However, I do like the little bit of red on the cuffs of the sleeves. It’s a nice, subtle touch. The random piping on the side seems unnecessary though. In general, I don’t like jerseys to be overly tight, and Puma has had a tendency of doing that for soccer jerseys. Out of the three new Arsenal designs, this one could be the most susceptible to that dreaded too tight look. The socks and shorts are nice enough, but overall, this primary strip is disappointing as Puma’s first effort.

The Away Yellow

This design harkens back to previous Arsenal looks more than the others. The yellow and navy work well together here, but a slightly brighter blue like the one used in this past season’s away strip might have been better. I think the shoulder and sleeve design looks a lot cleaner than it does on the home, albeit significantly harsher, but it’s interesting Puma didn’t settle on one consistent look. The whole design is rather simple, but the little bit of yellow on the sleeve makes a boring design slightly less so. Once again, the random navy piping on the sides is worthless. The shorts are pretty standard, but the yellow and navy stripes on the socks look sharp.

The Alternate Blue

I’m generally not a fan of having an entirely new third kit, but with Arsenal not having a third Puma option, this one was necessary. Out of the three though, this look may be my favorite. The diagonal stripes across the front are handsome, and while the kit is similar to Nike’s 2011/12 design, it’s much nicer. The touch of lime-green helps bring out the stripes, and for once, I think the side piping kind of works because it’s a third color. If the shorts are different than the away kit’s, it’s hard to tell, but the socks are an entirely different design. I prefer the stripes of the others to the blocky look of this one, but overall, they aren’t a disaster. It’s a pretty classic kit, and I hope Arsenal gets to wear it more than a couple times.

With inspiring mottos like “Future Forever Victorious” and “Stronger Together,” many would have expected something more akin to the Star Wars trilogy than the Arsenal Puma Kit Trilogy. But at least we were spared the misery of another kit introduction later on for the third strip. I guess I should be thankful that the money from the Puma contract helped bring Alexis Sanchez to Arsenal, but these kits don’t seem all that revolutionary to me.