Wild American Gooner

When Sports Are More Than Just Sports


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World Cup Knockout Stage Predictions

With no games to predict today, I think now is a good time to pick the games the rest of the way in the style of my most popular post – my original group stage predictions. While those picks don’t look so great now, it’s nice to have something to look back on as we progress. Don’t hold me to any of what I say, as I reserve the right to change my picks for games even in the round of 16 – unless I’m right of course. So here we go.

Round of 16

Brazil over Chile – I really want to pick against the hosts, and I very well might tomorrow, but I think Neymar has enough magic in him to edge Brazil past the exciting Chileans.

Colombia over Uruguay – There’s no way James Rodriguez will be stopped by a Luis Suarez-less Uruguay.

Netherlands over Mexico – Mexico might surprise the Dutch, but a Arjen Robben solo effort will prove enough in extra time.

Costa Rica over Greece – Why would I pick against Costa Rica? There’s no way Georgios Samaras scores again, so unless the match goes to penalties, the Ticos will advance.

France over Nigeria – France’s new-look attack will have their way with Nigeria’s defense. The French are on a roll.

Germany over Algeria – The upstart Desert Foxes will run into a brick wall in Germany, who will quickly show Algeria they aren’t playing in Group H anymore.

Argentina over Switzerland – Johan Djourou will be having nightmares about Lionel Messi all week. Argentina will romp, putting at least three past the Swiss.

USA over Belgium – Here’s my upset. The red, white and blue will win this one on penalties. Tim Howard will upstage Thibaut Courtois.

Quarterfinals

Colombia over Brazil – The pressure will get to Brazil, and they’ll wilt under the spotlights. Defensive mistakes from Brazil will see Colombia score early and often.

Netherlands over Costa Rica – The dream will die here. Robin van Persie will show Joel Campbell what a true Premier League striker looks like. And Louis van Gaal’s bunch will be back in the semifinals.

Germany over France – The game of the tournament will come two rounds too early. A high-scoring thriller will come down to penalties, where Manuel Neuer will best Hugo Lloris.

Argentina over USA – Lionel Messi will continue his stellar tournament, running circles around DeMarcus Beasley. This game won’t be close.

Semifinals

(Update: I made a mistake and set the wrong quarterfinalists together here. Please see the update for my correction)

Netherlands over Colombia – Two of the tournament’s surprises will meet in a contentious semi. Goals will come early, but the brakes will be thrown on and the second half will be a defensive struggle. Netherlands advances to their second straight final on penalties.

Germany over Argentina – My German bias might be a factor in this pick, but I see a repeat of the 2010 demolishing. Messi will be at his best, but his teammates won’t be of any help in the end.

3rd Place Game 

Argentina over Colombia – Lionel Messi will seal his golden boot and golden ball awards with a brace against Colombia. Argentina gets third.

Final

Germany over Netherlands – Die Mannschaft wird gewinnen! The Dutch defense will finally be exposed, and Arjen Robben won’t be at his best against many of his club teammates. Philipp Lahm will lift the trophy for the Germans, who will be deserving winners in Brazil.

Do you disagree? Tell me why I’m wrong. And enjoy the day off from soccer if you can. I know I won’t.

 

 


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Analyzing the Celtics First Round Draft Picks and the Big Night for Nik Stauskas

I had built up a lot of hope about the NBA Draft tonight for the Celtics. I allowed myself to believe Kevin Love might come to Boston a couple weeks ago. And then I allowed myself to think that Joel Embiid might fall into our lap. Then there were the moments tonight when I hoped the Celtics might trade up, or when I thought they could potentially wind up with Dante Exum. But then pick number six arrived and none of whom I wanted was still there. I should know not to get too excited when it comes to the Celtics and the Draft.

When Marcus Smart put his Celtics hat on at number six, my first thought was that this rebuilding process is going to take a while. I think Smart will be a good player, but probably never an all-star. I can see him being a defense-first point guard on a contender in a few years, one who needs to play alongside a scorer to thrive. Ideally, he will develop a jump shot at some point, but right now he’s not going to light it up offensively in the NBA.

I’m afraid this pick will signal the end of the Rajon Rondo era, if not now then later this season, and that’s a bit sad to think about. A long rebuild with Smart manning the point could lead to another great time for Celtics basketball in a number of years, but count me as one who would have liked to see Rondo given another shot with a star player in Boston. This pick also was the second time recently that the Celtics have taken a probable number one pick the year after they should have come out of college, with Jared Sullinger being the other. I guess that’s a good thing – but maybe there’s a reason these guys have fallen out of the top spot after another year in the spotlight.

At number 17, the Celtics pick of James Young was another case of drafting a guy who had the talent to be picked a lot higher. Personally, I was never very impressed with Young when I watched Kentucky play – which was a lot. He of course was immensely talented, but like the Harrison twins, I always wanted him to do more. As a shooting guard, he is not a pure shooter, and at that position, I would have liked the Celtics to have added a more consistent shooter.

I would have taken Gary Harris or Rodney Hood ahead of Young. For me, if Young works out, he’ll be a double-digit scoring energy guy off the bench on a good team. Best case scenario he becomes a Reggie Jackson type scorer. His performance in the NCAA Tournament was sensational, but it’s hard for me to ignore how many bad shots he took over the course of the regular season. In Kentucky’s two losses against Arkansas, his reaction to any adversity was to huck up threes. That doesn’t do it for me. But at pick seventeen, his upside as a scorer is great, so I shouldn’t complain, especially having watched the Celtics’ second-unit struggle to score for much of the latter half of the season.

In the current state of the Celtics, these two first round picks won’t change much for next season, and I don’t see them being cornerstones for the future. They can certainly contribute going forward, but Danny Ainge will have his work cut out assembling top line talent in the next few years that Smart and Young can complement. At this point, if Love isn’t coming, I say trade Jeff Green and see if you can get any assets for him. Keep Rondo for now, until an offer blows you away. Trading Rondo for fifty cents on the dollar right now would be a huge mistake.

I would also like to congratulate Nik Stauskas on his meteoric rise to the number eight pick. I saw him play a couple years in high school and always knew he was a player, but the speed at which he took over the spotlight from his high school teammates Alex Murphy and Kaleb Tarczewski (two top-ten recruits) was incredible. I’m proud to say I was the official statistician for Stauskas’s high school team’s league, emailing his stats out to Boston newspapers every week and once telling his coach in an email that he was “probably the best player in our league.” That same New England prep school league also produced Shabazz Napier, who himself was taken in the first round as well. Needless to say, it’s a big night for the Independent School League. I’ll be rooting for Stauskas every step of the way with Sacramento.


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Life After Death for the United States und Deutschland

When the draw came out in December, I don’t think many of us expected to be here at this moment, still standing after the Group of Death had run its course. It was hardly pretty, and not entirely convincing, but the U.S. deserves to be moving on. Who would have thought that the last few minutes of today’s game would have been so comfortable? Once Ronaldo scored to put Portugal in the lead over Ghana, you could almost feel a few million Americans release six months’ worth of built of stress. We did it. We made it out of the Group of Death.

I ended up watching pretty much the whole game at camp today save for the opening couple minutes. While watching with a bunch of fifth graders who knew little about soccer was hardly my preferred scene, at least I was able to watch. Maybe it was because I didn’t have much time to worry about this match, but I was a lot less nervous than I was before the last two. Germany was going to beat us, I knew. And there was nothing we could do beyond hoping that the Portuguese took care of business in their game. But as scared as I was about Ghana yesterday, the recently-announced suspensions of Kevin Prince Boateng and Sulley Muntari made me confident this morning.

There wasn’t a whole lot to the game itself. Germany dominated, but they had little reason to push forward for more goals. They look about the most settled side in Brazil right now, completely confident in their own ability. Even their weakness – the four center backs and their lack of pace and width in the back – is a strength on set pieces. With Thomas Müller in such fine goalscoring form, and the rest of the attackers finding their footing, the Germans are my favorite for the title at this point.

Despite the obvious strength of the Germans, the U.S. didn’t look out of place on the same field. A lot of Americans had strong performances today, including standout ones from Tim Howard, Kyle Beckerman and Matt Besler. Along with Jermaine Jones and Fabian Johnson, Besler has been the Americans’ standout performer so far in my eyes. I would really like to see him get a chance to play in Europe soon. Beside him in defense, Omar Gonzalez was solid, as Jürgen Klinsmann played all the right cards once again. His coaching decisions have been terrific I must say.

There are three major worries for this team going forward for me. The obvious one is Michael Bradley. Once again, he looked lost in the final third, acting like a shadow of the player he was in the warm-up games and prior to that. It feels like I’m beating a dead horse, but Bradley needs to be at his best if the U.S. hopes to advance another round. Nobody else on the team is capable of playing the vital number 10 role as well as he can, and his teammates need him to play up to his own high standards. His lack of a first touch was astounding.

The other major worry has to be the team’s fitness. For much of this game today, the Americans looked worn out, beaten by the harsh travel schedule and weather. Getting everybody’s legs back under them before the game against Belgium will be a big task for Klinsmann. And there’s no guarantee Jozy Altidore will be back anytime soon.

The final worry of mine is Graham Zusi’s set pieces. What was supposed to be a strength has turned into a bit of a problem, as aside from his ball to John Brooks in the Ghana games, his corners have been terrible, not being anywhere close to where they need to be. If the U.S. isn’t creating many chances from open play, set pieces must be taken advantage of if we are going to score. Zusi’s balls were certainly not going to produce any goals today.

But we are through to the knockout round and that is all that matters for now. We can focus on Belgium tomorrow. There is life after the Group of Death after all. Thank you, Portugal. Thank you, Kevin Prince Boateng and Sulley Muntari. But more importantly, thank you Jürgen Klinsmann. He is the true American hero from the group stage.

On another note, I think the Luis Suarez suspension is spot on. Four months away from soccer will hopefully teach that man a lesson. It a serious punishment, but also a reasonable one. A lifetime ban would have been incredibly harsh, so at least Liverpool fans can be happy he didn’t get that. But he should have no further place in this World Cup after giving the game of soccer such a bad name. And while Liverpool might feel harshly treated, a lengthy club suspension was also necessary. Let’s all agree that biting people is not okay.

What were your thoughts on all the soccer stories today? Please comment below.


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How The U.S. Beats Germany (Or At Least Ties Them)

I wasn’t able to catch any soccer yesterday, so I’ve been doing nothing but going through all potential scenarios about today in my head. I’m confident about our chances. But I’m scared. Germany is much better than Portugal. I’m hoping for a draw in the Portugal-Ghana game, but I don’t know how likely that is. So what does the U.S. have to do to get the all-important win?

To start, the U.S. must not sit back and hope for a scoreless draw. Playing ninety minutes of perfect defense isn’t something this current squad is capable of. At some point, there will be a mistake, and the Germans have the talent to capitalize. The U.S. will need to offer something going forward if only to prevent Germany from attacking with both fullbacks the whole game. A threat of a counter-attack will force Philipp Lahm to be more disciplined in midfield, and the U.S. will certainly be better off without him in possession in the attacking third.

While Portugal was a one-man threat, Germany offers the opposite – all players on the field can score. I think the U.S. might have success roughing up Mesut Özil and Mario Götze, two smaller players who don’t like a lot of contact. I hate to suggest we might have to play a more aggressive style of defense, but a few fouls here and there could prove helpful. If we can get Özil frustrated, Germany’s attack will become much less fluid.

Michael Bradley has to be better. His first half was decent against Portugal, but his play took a nosedive as the game went on. He should relish the chance to prove himself against some of the world’s best midfielders. I think he needs to be directly involved in a goal if the U.S. wants a result. Big players need to step up in big games and now is Bradley’s time. His balls over the top to Dempsey might be the way to unlock Germany’s defense, as Per Mertesacker’s speed remains a weakness of his. A late cameo from Aron Johannsson could terrorize Arsenal’s big German.

Should the U.S. attack a little bit, and if Fabian Johnson and Michael Bradley are at the top of their game, the Americans could create some chances. Germany has looked vulnerable at the back, and the only way to get a point off of them is to exploit that weakness. Simply trying to defend from the opening minute won’t get the job done.

I think the U.S. gives up another early goal, with Thomas Müller converting a penalty off a clumsy DeMarcus Beasley tackle. Mats Hummels will score a second German goal before halftime off of a set-piece. As the Americans send more men forward, a late counter-attack from Germany will see Andre Schürrle make it 3-0. It will be a convincing thumping, one that will leave American. fans in shock. Clint Dempsey will score a consolation goal in the waning moments though, which could be crucial in the goal-differential battle.  My final prediction is Germany 3 USA 1.

Ghana 2 Portugal 2

While everybody around this country will be watching the other game, this one will be a thriller. Portugal will score two first half goals, Cristiano Ronaldo on the end of both. The Portuguese will be flying, looking to overturn goal-differential problems from the loss to Germany. João Moutinho will pick apart the Ghanaian defense on the counter. But just when things are looking good for Portugal, Ghana will fight back, getting their first from Andre Ayew. Minutes later, Christian Atsu will open his World Cup account, tying the game. With the U.S. losing big, Ghana will go for it all in the closing minutes, sending everyone forward looking for the winner. But it won’t come. Portugal’s maligned defense will end up becoming American heroes.

Algeria 1 Russia 1

Algeria will continue to impress, taking Group H’s final spot from the grips of the Russians. Russia will jump on top early, getting a goal against the run of play from Alan Dzagoev, who I tip to start today. From there, Russia will sit back and hope to cling on to their slim lead. However, a deserved goal will come from Sofiane Feghouli for Algeria midway through the second half. The final twenty minutes or so will be incredibly tense, with the Russians throwing men forward in search of the winning goal. Unfortunately for Fabio Capello, Russia will lack the necessary quality to break down the crowded Algerian defense, and Algeria will be a surprise inclusion in the knockout stage.

Belgium 2 South Korea 0

Belgium will once again fail to impress. They’ll look tired and disinterested for much of the match. But when they feel like it, a goal will come from Kevin De Bruyne. Belgium’s second will be scored by Daniel Van Buyten on a towering header. South Korea won’t have much fight in them after Belgium’s first goal, and after an impressive start, will fail in the important moments. Like Argentina, Belgium will finish with all nine points having played nowhere near their best.

I hope everyone has plans to watch the game this afternoon, doing whatever it takes to watch. Apparently, my camp is watching the game for our afternoon activity, so hopefully that happens. Let’s pray for a tie in the Ghana-Portugal game. That might be our best hope. Ideally, I’ll also have a piece on the NBA Draft at some point this evening. I believe that we can win.

 

 


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Can the Swiss Hold On? Today’s Picks

Well good morning, everyone. Let’s hope we can have the World Cup storylines be about the soccer itself today. After I ranted about Luis Suarez last night, I found myself some extended highlights of the Colombia game. They are a delight to watch right now. I hope they have their way with Uruguay, and I don’t see why they won’t. James Rodriguez is on fire. His goal yesterday is my pick thus far for goal of the tournament – an absolute beauty. I don’t know if I’m going to be able to watch any games at all today though, as I’ve got a particularly busy day. But I’ll do my best to have some more content, so check back later.

Now for my predictions.

Bosnia & Herzegovina 2 Iran 0

Bosnia has played too well to leave Brazil without a win. It’ll come against Iran, who will fall short of reaching the knockout stage. Edin Džeko will score a brace, giving the disappointed Bosnians some consolation after some unlucky results. Iran will be threatening in the first half, but chances will be scarce as the game goes on. They’ll be disappointed to leave without a goal. Asmir Begović will prevent them from scoring, showing why he should be considered among the world’s very best. I think Bosnia will cruise.

Argentina 2 Nigeria 1

Nigeria will somehow manage to get out of the group with only four points, losing this one to Argentina, who will not be particularly convincing once again. Lionel Messi will provide the opener, setting up a Sergio Agüero goal midway through the first half. From there, Nigeria will control much of the game, tying it on a Emmanuel Emenike goal. He will be impressive today, finally getting his World Cup goal. Argentina will arrive at their winner on a Lionel Messi penalty late on. Argentina will be lucky to leave with all three points.

France 3 Ecuador 1

France’s new lineup will romp once again, crushing Ecuador’s hopes of advancing. Karim Benzema will add to his impressive tally with a thunderous strike within ten minutes. Raphael Varane will score France’s second off of a corner a few minutes later, and within twenty minutes, the game will be all be locked up. Loic Remy will add one of the bench to ensure France’s finish atop Group E late on. Enner Valencia will get his goal in stoppage time to give Ecuador one last chance to celebrate their accomplishment of getting to Brazil. Christian Benitez can be proud looking down on these guys.

Switzerland 2 Honduras 2

A nervy finish to this game will see Switzerland flirt with dropping out of the knockout stages, but they will ultimately hold on to the group’s final spot. A Granit Xhaka goal will give the Swiss the ideal start, offering a morale boost following the embarrassment against France. Xherdan Shaqiri will double the lead shortly after, and it will appear that Switzerland will be well on their way. But Honduras will claw back into the game in the second half, getting one back through Roger Espinoza. A goal from Jerry Bengtson will have the Swiss fearing the worst, but a late Diego Benaglio save will give Switzerland the necessary point.

Please share your thoughts below and have a great day.