Wild American Gooner

When Sports Are More Than Just Sports

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World Cup Knockout Stage Predictions

With no games to predict today, I think now is a good time to pick the games the rest of the way in the style of my most popular post – my original group stage predictions. While those picks don’t look so great now, it’s nice to have something to look back on as we progress. Don’t hold me to any of what I say, as I reserve the right to change my picks for games even in the round of 16 – unless I’m right of course. So here we go.

Round of 16

Brazil over Chile – I really want to pick against the hosts, and I very well might tomorrow, but I think Neymar has enough magic in him to edge Brazil past the exciting Chileans.

Colombia over Uruguay – There’s no way James Rodriguez will be stopped by a Luis Suarez-less Uruguay.

Netherlands over Mexico – Mexico might surprise the Dutch, but a Arjen Robben solo effort will prove enough in extra time.

Costa Rica over Greece – Why would I pick against Costa Rica? There’s no way Georgios Samaras scores again, so unless the match goes to penalties, the Ticos will advance.

France over Nigeria – France’s new-look attack will have their way with Nigeria’s defense. The French are on a roll.

Germany over Algeria – The upstart Desert Foxes will run into a brick wall in Germany, who will quickly show Algeria they aren’t playing in Group H anymore.

Argentina over Switzerland – Johan Djourou will be having nightmares about Lionel Messi all week. Argentina will romp, putting at least three past the Swiss.

USA over Belgium – Here’s my upset. The red, white and blue will win this one on penalties. Tim Howard will upstage Thibaut Courtois.

Quarterfinals

Colombia over Brazil – The pressure will get to Brazil, and they’ll wilt under the spotlights. Defensive mistakes from Brazil will see Colombia score early and often.

Netherlands over Costa Rica – The dream will die here. Robin van Persie will show Joel Campbell what a true Premier League striker looks like. And Louis van Gaal’s bunch will be back in the semifinals.

Germany over France – The game of the tournament will come two rounds too early. A high-scoring thriller will come down to penalties, where Manuel Neuer will best Hugo Lloris.

Argentina over USA – Lionel Messi will continue his stellar tournament, running circles around DeMarcus Beasley. This game won’t be close.

Semifinals

(Update: I made a mistake and set the wrong quarterfinalists together here. Please see the update for my correction)

Netherlands over Colombia – Two of the tournament’s surprises will meet in a contentious semi. Goals will come early, but the brakes will be thrown on and the second half will be a defensive struggle. Netherlands advances to their second straight final on penalties.

Germany over Argentina – My German bias might be a factor in this pick, but I see a repeat of the 2010 demolishing. Messi will be at his best, but his teammates won’t be of any help in the end.

3rd Place Game 

Argentina over Colombia – Lionel Messi will seal his golden boot and golden ball awards with a brace against Colombia. Argentina gets third.

Final

Germany over Netherlands – Die Mannschaft wird gewinnen! The Dutch defense will finally be exposed, and Arjen Robben won’t be at his best against many of his club teammates. Philipp Lahm will lift the trophy for the Germans, who will be deserving winners in Brazil.

Do you disagree? Tell me why I’m wrong. And enjoy the day off from soccer if you can. I know I won’t.

 

 


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Life After Death for the United States und Deutschland

When the draw came out in December, I don’t think many of us expected to be here at this moment, still standing after the Group of Death had run its course. It was hardly pretty, and not entirely convincing, but the U.S. deserves to be moving on. Who would have thought that the last few minutes of today’s game would have been so comfortable? Once Ronaldo scored to put Portugal in the lead over Ghana, you could almost feel a few million Americans release six months’ worth of built of stress. We did it. We made it out of the Group of Death.

I ended up watching pretty much the whole game at camp today save for the opening couple minutes. While watching with a bunch of fifth graders who knew little about soccer was hardly my preferred scene, at least I was able to watch. Maybe it was because I didn’t have much time to worry about this match, but I was a lot less nervous than I was before the last two. Germany was going to beat us, I knew. And there was nothing we could do beyond hoping that the Portuguese took care of business in their game. But as scared as I was about Ghana yesterday, the recently-announced suspensions of Kevin Prince Boateng and Sulley Muntari made me confident this morning.

There wasn’t a whole lot to the game itself. Germany dominated, but they had little reason to push forward for more goals. They look about the most settled side in Brazil right now, completely confident in their own ability. Even their weakness – the four center backs and their lack of pace and width in the back – is a strength on set pieces. With Thomas Müller in such fine goalscoring form, and the rest of the attackers finding their footing, the Germans are my favorite for the title at this point.

Despite the obvious strength of the Germans, the U.S. didn’t look out of place on the same field. A lot of Americans had strong performances today, including standout ones from Tim Howard, Kyle Beckerman and Matt Besler. Along with Jermaine Jones and Fabian Johnson, Besler has been the Americans’ standout performer so far in my eyes. I would really like to see him get a chance to play in Europe soon. Beside him in defense, Omar Gonzalez was solid, as Jürgen Klinsmann played all the right cards once again. His coaching decisions have been terrific I must say.

There are three major worries for this team going forward for me. The obvious one is Michael Bradley. Once again, he looked lost in the final third, acting like a shadow of the player he was in the warm-up games and prior to that. It feels like I’m beating a dead horse, but Bradley needs to be at his best if the U.S. hopes to advance another round. Nobody else on the team is capable of playing the vital number 10 role as well as he can, and his teammates need him to play up to his own high standards. His lack of a first touch was astounding.

The other major worry has to be the team’s fitness. For much of this game today, the Americans looked worn out, beaten by the harsh travel schedule and weather. Getting everybody’s legs back under them before the game against Belgium will be a big task for Klinsmann. And there’s no guarantee Jozy Altidore will be back anytime soon.

The final worry of mine is Graham Zusi’s set pieces. What was supposed to be a strength has turned into a bit of a problem, as aside from his ball to John Brooks in the Ghana games, his corners have been terrible, not being anywhere close to where they need to be. If the U.S. isn’t creating many chances from open play, set pieces must be taken advantage of if we are going to score. Zusi’s balls were certainly not going to produce any goals today.

But we are through to the knockout round and that is all that matters for now. We can focus on Belgium tomorrow. There is life after the Group of Death after all. Thank you, Portugal. Thank you, Kevin Prince Boateng and Sulley Muntari. But more importantly, thank you Jürgen Klinsmann. He is the true American hero from the group stage.

On another note, I think the Luis Suarez suspension is spot on. Four months away from soccer will hopefully teach that man a lesson. It a serious punishment, but also a reasonable one. A lifetime ban would have been incredibly harsh, so at least Liverpool fans can be happy he didn’t get that. But he should have no further place in this World Cup after giving the game of soccer such a bad name. And while Liverpool might feel harshly treated, a lengthy club suspension was also necessary. Let’s all agree that biting people is not okay.

What were your thoughts on all the soccer stories today? Please comment below.


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How The U.S. Beats Germany (Or At Least Ties Them)

I wasn’t able to catch any soccer yesterday, so I’ve been doing nothing but going through all potential scenarios about today in my head. I’m confident about our chances. But I’m scared. Germany is much better than Portugal. I’m hoping for a draw in the Portugal-Ghana game, but I don’t know how likely that is. So what does the U.S. have to do to get the all-important win?

To start, the U.S. must not sit back and hope for a scoreless draw. Playing ninety minutes of perfect defense isn’t something this current squad is capable of. At some point, there will be a mistake, and the Germans have the talent to capitalize. The U.S. will need to offer something going forward if only to prevent Germany from attacking with both fullbacks the whole game. A threat of a counter-attack will force Philipp Lahm to be more disciplined in midfield, and the U.S. will certainly be better off without him in possession in the attacking third.

While Portugal was a one-man threat, Germany offers the opposite – all players on the field can score. I think the U.S. might have success roughing up Mesut Özil and Mario Götze, two smaller players who don’t like a lot of contact. I hate to suggest we might have to play a more aggressive style of defense, but a few fouls here and there could prove helpful. If we can get Özil frustrated, Germany’s attack will become much less fluid.

Michael Bradley has to be better. His first half was decent against Portugal, but his play took a nosedive as the game went on. He should relish the chance to prove himself against some of the world’s best midfielders. I think he needs to be directly involved in a goal if the U.S. wants a result. Big players need to step up in big games and now is Bradley’s time. His balls over the top to Dempsey might be the way to unlock Germany’s defense, as Per Mertesacker’s speed remains a weakness of his. A late cameo from Aron Johannsson could terrorize Arsenal’s big German.

Should the U.S. attack a little bit, and if Fabian Johnson and Michael Bradley are at the top of their game, the Americans could create some chances. Germany has looked vulnerable at the back, and the only way to get a point off of them is to exploit that weakness. Simply trying to defend from the opening minute won’t get the job done.

I think the U.S. gives up another early goal, with Thomas Müller converting a penalty off a clumsy DeMarcus Beasley tackle. Mats Hummels will score a second German goal before halftime off of a set-piece. As the Americans send more men forward, a late counter-attack from Germany will see Andre Schürrle make it 3-0. It will be a convincing thumping, one that will leave American. fans in shock. Clint Dempsey will score a consolation goal in the waning moments though, which could be crucial in the goal-differential battle.  My final prediction is Germany 3 USA 1.

Ghana 2 Portugal 2

While everybody around this country will be watching the other game, this one will be a thriller. Portugal will score two first half goals, Cristiano Ronaldo on the end of both. The Portuguese will be flying, looking to overturn goal-differential problems from the loss to Germany. João Moutinho will pick apart the Ghanaian defense on the counter. But just when things are looking good for Portugal, Ghana will fight back, getting their first from Andre Ayew. Minutes later, Christian Atsu will open his World Cup account, tying the game. With the U.S. losing big, Ghana will go for it all in the closing minutes, sending everyone forward looking for the winner. But it won’t come. Portugal’s maligned defense will end up becoming American heroes.

Algeria 1 Russia 1

Algeria will continue to impress, taking Group H’s final spot from the grips of the Russians. Russia will jump on top early, getting a goal against the run of play from Alan Dzagoev, who I tip to start today. From there, Russia will sit back and hope to cling on to their slim lead. However, a deserved goal will come from Sofiane Feghouli for Algeria midway through the second half. The final twenty minutes or so will be incredibly tense, with the Russians throwing men forward in search of the winning goal. Unfortunately for Fabio Capello, Russia will lack the necessary quality to break down the crowded Algerian defense, and Algeria will be a surprise inclusion in the knockout stage.

Belgium 2 South Korea 0

Belgium will once again fail to impress. They’ll look tired and disinterested for much of the match. But when they feel like it, a goal will come from Kevin De Bruyne. Belgium’s second will be scored by Daniel Van Buyten on a towering header. South Korea won’t have much fight in them after Belgium’s first goal, and after an impressive start, will fail in the important moments. Like Argentina, Belgium will finish with all nine points having played nowhere near their best.

I hope everyone has plans to watch the game this afternoon, doing whatever it takes to watch. Apparently, my camp is watching the game for our afternoon activity, so hopefully that happens. Let’s pray for a tie in the Ghana-Portugal game. That might be our best hope. Ideally, I’ll also have a piece on the NBA Draft at some point this evening. I believe that we can win.

 

 


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One Kick Away From a Near Perfect Performance

We were so damn close… Everything was perfect. And then it wasn’t. Since the fifth minute, nearly everything had gone the Americans’ way. Jürgen Klinsmann made all the right substitutions, and I have to say, his tactics were just about spot on. But then Ronaldo sent in the perfect ball. And all of it seems for naught. That was a match we’ll all remember. But let’s hope we can remember the middle 88 minutes and not the last kick. Thursday will be the death of us all.

The talk going into this match centered on two things – replacing Jozy Altidore and stopping Cristiano Ronaldo. I was skeptical when I saw Klinsmann’s lineup, but Clint Dempsey played superbly up top in the first half, intelligently making runs behind Portugal’s high line. Even without the extra forward, chances were still created. And with the added man in midfield, Ronaldo had little space to operate, with somebody sent at him anytime Portugal looked to be on the break. Even when Ronaldo got a half-chance, he was noticeably off tonight, sending his efforts either above the bar or well wide. That is until the last one.

My man of the match was Jermaine Jones. In the first half, he and Bradley got forward well, and played a lot of intelligent balls. But when Jones ventured forward, he always made sure he had the cover behind him. Defensively, he was excellent at times, with a plethora of vital tackles. In the closing minutes, he blocked a couple of shots well. Even when he gave the ball away, he was quick to earn it back. He also scored an absolute beauty to tie the game, connecting on a curling long-range effort that will be a candidate for goal of the tournament. The goal was well-deserved for Jones, who put in a quality shift.

There were a number of other impressive players in this match for the United States, something you can’t say about many Portuguese players. Matt Besler had an outstanding game in the back, surely his best in a USA shirt. Fabian Johnson too was excellent for much of the game down the right. That Portugal ended up with two goals should not cloud how good the U.S. were defensively, as many players put in impressively disciplined performances. Tim Howard didn’t have his best game, but his save of Eder’s rebounded effort late in the first half was incredible. Not many humans possess the balance necessary to stay on their feet long enough to tip the ball away like Howard did.

In addition to getting everything right tactically, Klinsmann made the right substitutions. DeAndre Yedlin made an outstanding cameo, which not many would have expected. His decision to bring in Chris Wondolowski late on was also excellent, as Wondolowski’s veteran decision to bring the ball to the corner was in stark contrast to Bradley’s play at the end of the Ghana game. Omar Gonzalez might have been better positioned on Varela’s goal, but he was the obvious man to bring in at the end too.

But after all that, Cristiano Ronaldo had just a little too much space and sent in the perfect ball for Varela’s equalizer. At that point, all you can do is tip your cap, and take the positives from this match. As close as the Americans were to qualifying for the next round, they cannot let themselves have a let down with the all-important game against Germany coming up after only three days of rest. They must regroup, treat injuries and keep their heads up. They were the better team tonight and they need to know that.

Germany is good, but the U.S. can’t be intimated. Sitting back and hoping for a point won’t work against the Germans. They have too much talent. The Americans shouldn’t be afraid to attack, knowing that even a close defeat could be all that is needed in that match. Klinsmann’s biggest task before Thursday might be getting his players’ minds ready once again.

I still don’t really know what to feel. You can’t fault the Americans for how they played. The showed the American spirit we all love them these players for, and were the better team today. But damn, that was disappointing in the end. At least we got a point. From 1-0 down at half, a point is still a good result against one of the best teams in the world.

What are your thoughts on the match? Are we going to be able to recover from the disappointment? Comment below.

 


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Die Beste Halbe von Fußball Bisher (The Best Half of Soccer So Far)

Hoffentlich Die Mannschaft spielt viele mehr Spielen in Brazil weil mehr Deutsch muss ich schreiben! After a full twenty-three hours without watching a World Cup match (it felt strange, believe me), I was able to tune in to the Germay-Ghana game, hoping to see some German delight. But instead, I was treated to one the most enthralling half of soccer the World Cup has offered thus far. As a U.S. supporter first and foremost, this game was agonizing to watch at times, not to mention that Germany would be my obvious team given my familial roots and second language choice. ESPN’s Jon Champion called the scoreless first half a “game for the purists,” but the second half was for everyone.

Before I get to everything else, I have to question Jogi Löw’s decision to bring on the inexperienced Shkodran Mustafi at right back at half for Jerome Boateng. While Philipp Lahm may be his ideal holding midfielder at this point in the German captain’s career, there comes a come when the best right back in the world should be playing right back. I am fine with Boateng on the right, because he is sound defensively and certainly capable of sending in the odd cross. But when Boateng is not on the field, Lahm needs to shift to defense. Germany’s options for holding midfielders off the bench are far better than their secondary options in the back. Mustafi messed up today, allowing Andrew Ayew to get in front of him for a game-tying header. Another mistake could cost the Germans tremendously down the line.

Aside from that, I felt like Germany were a step slow tonight. They were adventurous going forward for much of the match, but remain a few causes for concern. With all the fluid movement up top, they leave their defenders very exposed at times. The backline is more than capable of holding down the fort, but Löw’s tactics put a lot of pressure on his back four. Should there be a giveaway in midfield, like there was on Asomoah Gyan’s goal, there’s not much the defense can do without cover from any wide areas.

The highlight of this game for me was Miroslav Klose’s goal. That it came so soon after his arrival on the pitch provided a further testament to his goalscoring prowess at the World Cup. While the public might be in love with posterboy Mario Götze, Klose is simply ruthless. When Germany needs a goal, he needs to be on the field. Götze should start in my opinion, but don’t forget about Klose. He’s got a little more left.

For me, Mesut Özil had another decent game, but again a keener desire to score himself could have been the difference. Many might be dissatisfied again with his perceived lack of interest, but I feel it’s wrong to judge him for his resting facial expression, though you can fault him for not sprinting back after giving the ball way. Özil made a lot of intelligent runs to get into wonderful spaces, and two or three times you had to wonder if he had a shot in him. Maybe it’s a lost cause to want him to shoot more, but he has a strong shot in him when he decides to let one go. But alas, you know what you’re going to get from Özil these days. He certainly has more to give, but we’re only going to see it if we allow him to be himself. Germany needs him badly, and would be unwise to give up on him right now.

Lastly, Ghana is a heck of a team. In most every group, they would likely be going through. They were woefully unlucky against the U.S., and today they certainly were on par with the Germans. While they will probably be going home, it would be wrong to say they underperformed. Some teams just get unlucky. And no, I don’t mean England.

It sounds like I missed a good one in Argentina and Iran earlier today. But it looks as if we might see a lot more of Lionel Messi.